Investigating Urban Expansion and Its Drivers in Ardebil

Authors

1 Professor, Urban planning Department, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

2 Department of Art & Architecture

3 Professor, Urban planning Department, Faculty of Art and Architecture,Science and Research Branch,Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

The expansion and growth of cities is a remarkable phenomenon in urban planning literature,
so that unpredictable developments have become more evident in recent decades, especially in cities that have
undergone changes in their physical structure following the promotion of their political role. The present paper seeks
to identify the factors driving growth in the developed areas of Ardebil city and extract basic factors and variables
by investigating development of Ardebil. In this study, 27 variables have been tested in 920 expansion blocks during
the years 1996 to 2011 using GIS and factor analysis. Four main groups including congestion factor, external factor,
access factor and facilities are identified as driving forces of growth. The final combination of four factors in the Arc
GIS environment show that the north, east and south east blocks of Ardebil had a higher score than the other blocks;
in other words, these factors have the most effect on the growth of these areas. In addition, the Southwest blocks with
the lowest score of between 0 and 2 have had the least impact from among the factors mentioned.

Keywords


­   Barnes, K.B., Morgan, J.M., III, Roberge M.C. and Lowe, S. (2001) Sprawl Development: Its Patterns, Consequences, and Measurement. A white paper, Towson University.

­   Bhatta, B. (2010) Analysis of Urban Growth and Sprawl from Remote Sensing Data. Springer,p. 172.

­   Tarh and kavosh Consultant Engineers, Ardebil City Master Plan (2011), Ministry of Roads and Urban Development.

­   Geshkov, M.V., (2010). The effect of land-use controls on urban sprawl, Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Graduate School, University of South Florida.

­   Hasse,  J.(2002) Is It Sprawl Or Smart Growth? A Dozen Geospatial Indices Of Urban Sprawl, Department of Geography Rowan University.

­   Heimlich, R.E. and Anderson, W.D. (2001). Development at the Urban Fringe and Beyond: Impacts on Agriculture and Rural Land. ERS Agricultural Economic Report No. 803, p. 88.

­   Hekmat Nia, H. and Mousavi, M. (2013). Application of Model in Geography with Emphasis on Urban and Regional Planning. Azad Peyma Publication, Third Edition.

­   Cheng, J., & Masser, I. (2003). Urban growth pattern modeling: a case study of Wuhan city, PR China. Landscape and urban planning62(4), 199-217.

­   Majedi, H., Zabardast, E., and Mojarabi Kermani, B. (2012), Analysis of Factors Affecting the Pattern of Physical Growth in Large Cities (Case Study: Rasht City). Fine Arts - Architecture and Urban Development, 17(3), pp. 49-60.

­   Olajoke, A. (2007) The Pattern Direction and Factors Responsible for Urban Growth in a Developing African City: A Case Study of Ogbomoso, J. Hum. Ecol.,vol 22(3), pp. 221-226 .

­   United Nations (2005a). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision. Pop. Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, UN. URL: http://www.un.org/esa/ population/publications/WUP2005/2005wup.htm.

­   Wilson, E.H., Hurd, J.D., Civco, D.L., Prisloe, S. and Arnold, C. (2003). Development of a geospatial model to quantify, describe and map urban growth. Remote Sensing of Environment, 86(3), 275–285.

­   Zabardast, E., Khalili, A., and Dehghani, M. (2013). Application of Factor Analysis Method in Identifying Urban Worn out Texture. Fine Arts - Architecture and Urban Development, 18(2), pp. 27-42.

­   Zebardast, E. (2013) Constructing a Social Vulnerability Index to Earthquake Hazards using a Hybrid Factor Analysis and Analytic Network Process)F’ANP) Model, Natural Hazards, Vol 65 ,pp-1331-1359